Final Conclusion
Given the sources and explanations below. I am officially going to do the following to optimize my battery life:
- Keep my battery as cool as possible.
- Don't worry about whether it's plugged in or not. When it doubt, keep it plugged in so it uses AC power instead of battery, unless getting hot.
It turns out that the two methods I originally posited are largely moot. The only thing that really matters is temperature.
"Temperature was the most significant factor contributing to the cell degradation, with state-of-charge (SOC) and discharge pulse length of secondary importance." (Liaw et al.2)
Furthermore, it turns out that the decay can be accurately mathematically modeled:
(See Ramadass et al.1 for explanation of terms)
However, the dominant model is that of the Arrhenius formula, which generically predicts time-to-failure as a function of temperature.
The figure below shows the capacity at various cycle counts. Just look at the capacity on the x-axis. The top graph is at 25ºC, the bottom at 50ºC.
After 600 cycles, the cooler battery had ~2x the capacity
While I could still find no evidence on the behavior of Mac power circuitry, there was helpful information on the official Dell website. Two items specifically stood out.
Q. When docked or AC adapter is plugged into a wall outlet, am I using my battery charge?
A. No.
http://www.dell.com/content/topics/global.aspx/batteries_sitelet/en/batteries_faq?c=us&l=en&cs=19#faq9
Q. Should I totally discharge, then recharge my Dell laptop battery occasionally to make it last longer?
A. No, discharging and charging does not increase the life of a Lithium Ion technology battery.
http://www.dell.com/content/topics/global.aspx/batteries_sitelet/en/batteries_faq?c=us&l=en&cs=19#faq27
However It is important to note that Apple and Dell charging circuits may be different. Although, given that Dell does this, I assume apple does as well. On this assumption, unless someone can provide sources to claim otherwise, I will assume that the Apple charging circuitry is smart enough to know this.
I encourage anyone to continue exploring this question and challenge my assumptions. Please see the sources below if you're curious for a more detailed explanation.
Sources
1 Ramadass, P., Bala Haran, Ralph White, and Branko Popov. "Mathematical Modeling of the Capacity Fade of Li-ion Cells." Journal of Power Sources 123.2 (2003): 230-40. Web. http://www.che.sc.edu/faculty/popov/drbnp/WebSite/Publications_PDFs/Web33.pdf.
2 Liaw, B., R. Jungst, G. Nagasubramanian, H. Case, and D. Doughty. "Modeling Capacity Fade in Lithium-ion Cells." Journal of Power Sources 140.1 (2005): 157-61. Web. http://electrochem.org/dl/ma/204/pdfs/0253.PDF.
[3] Ning, G. "Capacity Fade Study of Lithium-ion Batteries Cycled at High Discharge Rates." Journal of Power Sources 117.1-2 (2003): 160-69. Web. http://www.che.sc.edu/faculty/popov/drbnp/website/Publications_PDFs/Web38.pdf.
[4] Ramadass, P., Bala Haran, Parthasarathy M. Gomadam, Ralph White, and Branko N. Popov. "Development of First Principles Capacity Fade Model for Li-Ion Cells." Journal of The Electrochemical Society 151.2 (2004): A196. Web. http://www.che.sc.edu/faculty/popov/Publications/Premanand1.pdf
[5] Zhang, D., B. S. Haran, A. Durairajan, R. W. White, Y. Podrazhansky, and B. N. Popov. "Studies on Capacity Fade of Lithium-ion Batteries." Journal of Power Sources 91 (2000): 122-29. Web. http://www.che.sc.edu/faculty/white/2000studiesoncapcaityfadeofzhangharandurairajanwhitepodrazhanshkypopov.pdf.
A faulty sensor could do it. Apple says:
"A charge cycle means using all of the battery’s power, but that doesn’t necessarily mean a single charge. For instance, you could use your notebook for an hour or more one day, using half its power, and then recharge it fully. If you did the same thing the next day, it would count as one charge cycle, not two, so it may take several days to complete a cycle."
Looks like a good case for a visit to the Genius Bar, and perhaps having your battery replaced. I agree it does not seem at all plausible that your cycle count is higher than the days you have owned it.
Best Answer
Don't stress about it so much.
A Battery cycle refers to, more or less, one mostly full discharge and recharge. Typically, your battery should be rated for somewhere in the neighborhood of 1000 cycles. Eventually, the battery just won't hold a charge for as long as it did when it was new, but that's why batteries are easily and affordably replaceable. It's a consumable part. If it dies prematurely (which is the only thing you should really need to pay attention to cycles for), then it's covered under your warranty. The 'Battery Cycles' indicator is mainly there so that you can diagnose this. If, in a years time, your laptop's battery only lasts half as long as it did when it was new, but you've only used say, 400 cycles, well, that's not performing up to spec, and it should be covered under your warranty. If you've used 1500 cycles (doing that in a year would be some pretty heavy and impressive use though, I've gotta say), well, that's to be expected. You used your battery a lot, and it wore out.
Use your laptop as normal. Battery cycles are not a scarce and precious resource to be hoarded. 12 cycles in about a week and a half sounds pretty normal for a new laptop being used heavily to me. That's about, what? 6 hours/day unconnected to a power source? If you're using it on the go, that's a perfectly reasonable amount of consumption.